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Estimating missing activity data

Estimating missing activity data  

Estimation methods and preferred hierarchy  

When emissions-generating activity data is unavailable, incomplete, or there are issues of data quality, it may be necessary to estimate a portion of an activity’s data to avoid under-disclosing emissions. This guide describes a hierarchy of estimation approaches in order of most to least preferred.   

Sustain.Life guidance
Track the percentage of data requiring estimations and work to improve the quality and completeness of reported data each year. Knowing the ratio of reported data to estimated data across each emissions-generating activity provides valuable insight into the areas of your company that require better data management. Try to reduce the reliance on these estimation techniques for a more accurate, actionable GHG emissions inventory.  

 
 

The best estimation methodologies are based on the highest quality data sources that either correlate strongly or otherwise predict the estimated data. That said, there is a preferred order for these methods based on the precision of the approach:  

  1. Repair incomplete raw data  

  1. Develop internal intensities  

  1. Utilize correlated data  

  1. Apply industry average intensities  

Method 1: Repair incomplete raw data  

Before attempting to fully estimate emissions for a given activity, review available data to see if it can be repaired by estimating any missing elements. This section describes three recommended repair approaches applied to example situations where only a portion of a leased office space’s electric utility bills are available:  

  • Interpolation. If there are gaps of 60 days or less between two available utility bills, the consumption from the missing period can be filled by taking the average daily consumption rate of the previous bill and the following bill and applying this blended rate to the missing period.  

  • Extrapolation. If bills are missing from the beginning or end of the year, the daily rate of energy consumption for the nearest available bill can be calculated and applied to the missing bill period.

  • Substitution. If there is a missing bill from the current year’s data but a bill is available for the same period during a prior year, consider using the previous year’s bill for the current year’s missing bill period.  

See examples below.  

These methods are useful when there is a known seasonal effect in the relevant activity, such as shifting HVAC demands at different points during the calendar year.   

Example 1:  

 
 
 
 
 
 

Bill start date  

 
 
 
 

Bill end date  

 
 
 
 

Days in billing period  

 
 
 
 

Billing period  electricity  

consumption  

(kWh)  

 
 
 
 

Bill amount  

 
 
 
 

1/1/2021  

 
 

1/28/2021  

 
 

28  

 
 

325  

 
 

$  46.31  

 
 
 
 

1/29/2021  

 
 

2/25/2021  

 
 

28  

 
 

300  

 
 

$  42.75  

 
 
 
 

2/26/2021  

 
 

3/23/2021  

 
 

Unknown  

 
 

Unknown  

 
 

 Unknown   

 
 
 
 

3/24/2021  

 
 

4/21/2021  

 
 

29  

 
 

325  

 
 

$  46.31  

 
 
 
 

4/22/2021  

 
 

5/20/2021  

 
 

29  

 
 

350  

 
 

$  49.88  

To estimate the missing consumption data from 2/26/2021 – 3/23/2021, apply the interpolation method:  

  1. Find the number of missing days: 
    2/26/2021 – 3/23/2021 = 26 days  

  1. Calculate the average daily electricity consumption from your prior bill: 
    300 kWh / 28 days = 10.7 kWh/day  

  1. Calculate the average daily electricity consumption from your subsequent bill: 
    325 kWh / 29 days = 11.2 kWh/day  

  1. Average the daily consumption from your prior and subsequent bills: 
    (10.7 + 11.2)/2 = 11 kWh/day  

  1. Multiply the aggregate average daily consumption by the number of missing days: 
    26 days * 11 kWh/day = 286 kWh  

  1. Estimated electricity consumption for 2/26/2021 – 3/23/2021 billing period is 286 kWh  

Example 2:  

 
 
 
 
 
 

Bill start date  

 
 
 
 

Bill end date  

 
 
 
 

Days in billing period  

 
 
 
 

Billing period electricity  

consumption  

(kWh)  

 
 
 
 

Bill amount  

 
 
 
 

10/8/2021  

 
 

11/5/2021  

 
 

29  

 
 

380  

 
 

$  53.44  

 
 
 
 

11/6/2021  

 
 

12/5/2021  

 
 

Unknown  

 
 

Unknown  

 
 

Unknown  

 
 
 
 

12/6/2021  

 
 

12/31/2021  

 
 

Unknown  

 
 

Unknown  

 
 

Unknown  

To estimate the missing consumption data from 11/6/2021 – 12/4/2021 and 12/5/2021 – 12/31/2021, apply the extrapolation method:  

  1. Find the number of missing days for each billing period: 
    11/6/2021 – 12/5/2021 = 30 days 
    12/6/2021 – 12/31/2021 = 26 days  

  1. Calculate the average daily electricity consumption from your most recent available bill:  
    380 kWh / 29 days = 13.1 kWh/day  

  1. Multiply the average daily consumption from your prior bill by the number of missing days in each billing period: 
    30 days * 13.1 kWh/day = 393 kWh 
    26 days * 13.1 kWh/day = 341 kWh  

  1. Estimated electricity consumption is 393 kWh for the 11/6/2021 – 12/5/2021 billing period and 341 kWh for the 12/6/2021 – 12/31/2021 billing period  

Example 3:  

 
 
 
 
 
 

Bill start date  

 
 
 
 

Bill end date  

 
 
 
 

Days in billing period  

 
 
 
 

Billing period electricity  

consumption  

(kWh)  

 
 
 
 

Bill amount  

 
 
 
 

1/1/2021  

 
 

1/28/2021  

 
 

Unknown  

 
 

Unknown  

 
 

Unknown  

 
 
 
 

1/29/2021  

 
 

2/25/2021  

 
 

28  

 
 

300  

 
 

$  42.75  

 
 
 
 

2/26/2021  

 
 

3/23/2021  

 
 

26  

 
 

280  

 
 

 $  40.00  

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

1/1/2020

 
 
 
 

1/27/2020  

 
 
 
 

27  

 
 
 
 

325  

 
 
 
 

$  46.31  

  

To estimate the missing consumption data from 1/1/2021 – 1/28/2021, apply the substitution method:  

  1. Find the number of missing days: 
    1/1/2021 – 1/28/2021 = 28 days  

  1. Calculate the average daily electricity consumption from the available bill from the same time period in the prior year (i.e., January 2020): 
    325 kWh / 27 days = 12 kWh/day  

  1. Multiply the average daily consumption from that bill by the number of missing days:
    28 days * 12 kWh/day = 336 kWh  

  1. Estimated consumption for 1/1/2021 – 1/28/2021 billing period is 336 kWh  

Method 2: Develop internal intensities  

Sometimes the repair methods above will be unavailable or impractical. Maybe there is a fuel tracking system that has only been installed for a portion of a fleet, or utility data is only available for some leased office spaces. In these scenarios, it may be possible to estimate consumption by creating an internal energy usage intensity (EUI) metric (e.g., kWh electricity per square foot, or miles per vehicle) and applying that intensity to the missing portion of the data.   

For example, a common situation faced by building occupants without sub-metered utilities is that energy consumption is only tracked at the whole-building level. In this case, the whole building data can be allocated to the leased portion of the building either by area (e.g., for electricity, which is tied to the space) or by employee (e.g., for water, which is tied to employee use).  

Example 4:  

 
 
 
 
 
 

Leased office  

 
 
 
 

Area (sq. Ft.)  

 
 
 
 

Annual electricity consumption (kWh)  

 
 
 
 

EUI (kWh/sqft 

 
 
 
 

Office A  

 
 

                      1,000   

 
 

                         900   

 
 

0.9  

 
 
 
 

Office B  

 
 

                 1,500   

 
 

                    750   

 
 

0.5  

 
 
 
 

Office C  

 
 

                 1,250   

 
 

                 1,000   

 
 

0.8  

 
 
 
 

Office D  

 
 

                 1,750   

 
 

 Unknown   

 
 

Unknown  

To estimate Office D’s missing consumption data, use the square footage and electricity consumption from similar properties to calculate the internal EUI:  

  1. Take the average EUI of all similar properties: 
    Average EUI = (0.9 + 0.5 + 0.8)/3 = 0.7 kWh/sqft  

  1. Multiply the average EUI by the square footage of Office D to estimate annual electricity consumption: 
    1,750 sq. ft. * 0.7 kWh/sq. ft. = 1,283 kWh  

  1. Estimated annual consumption for Office D is 1,283 kWh  

Method 3: Utilize correlated data  

When there aren’t enough data points to develop an internal EUI to estimate missing consumption data, try to identify an adjacent available data point that correlates to the missing data. For instance, your company may maintain an accounting system that tracks utility expenses, which can be used to fill data gaps if electricity consumption volumes are unavailable. As most utility costs scale with the volume of fuel or electricity consumed, spending can be used to approximate energy data by applying a utility rate (e.g., USD/kWh). Be sure to exclude taxes/VAT and service fees and use rates from your data gap year to avoid inflation adjustments.  

 

Example 5:  

 
 
 
 
 
 

Leased office  

 
 
 
 

Annual utility expenses  

 
 
 
 

Office A  

 
 

$           31,415.92   

 
 
 
 

Office B  

 
 

$           65,358.97  

 

To estimate the electricity consumption of offices where expense data is available, but consumption data is not:  

  1. Contact the facility manager or building owner to verify that the utility expenses are exclusively electricity-related (i.e., excluding heating, steam, or cooling costs).  

  • This information may not always be available from the facility manager or building owner, but the question should be asked nonetheless as it will improve the basis of a company’s estimations. Contacting the facility manager to understand your location’s energy usage more fully may also strengthen relationships and reveal opportunities to collaborate on renewable energy procurement.  

  1. To convert the electricity expense into an equivalent electricity volume, an average utility retail price per kWh can be obtained from a reputable industry source, such as:  

  1. Divide your company’s electricity spend by the appropriate average utility retail price to approximate electricity consumption for the year: 
    Office A = $31,415.92 / $0.1425 = 220,462 kWh 
    Office B = $65,358.97 / $0.1425 = 458,659 kWh  

Method 4: Apply industry average intensities  

If raw datasets prove to be unavailable or unusable, it may be necessary to find and apply an appropriate industry average EUI. These datasets are typically developed from a national or regional sample survey that collects information on commercial buildings, including their energy-related building characteristics and energy usage data. Some of the most well-known sources include:  

While this approach may be appealing for its simplicity, it doesn’t allow for accurate tracking of trends over time or realize the results of your company’s emissions reduction efforts (i.e., energy efficiency projects, behavioral changes, etc.). Also, this method isn’t suitable for buildings with non-standard activities, such as manufacturing plants. Company GHG inventories that utilize an industry average in their base year should recalculate their base year when more accurate consumption data becomes available.  

Example 6:  

Office A is a 2,000 square foot leased office space in Arizona in the United States. Due to the structure of the lease agreement, electricity consumption data is not available for this office.  

  1. Obtain an industry energy use intensity (EUI) from CBECS 
    Office buildings in the West Census region have a 2018 CBECS average of 13.3 kWh/sq. ft.  

  1. Apply the EUI to the available office area information to estimate annual electricity consumption: 
    2,000 sq. ft. * 13.3 kWh/sq. ft. = 26,600 kWh  

  1. Estimated annual electricity consumption for Office A is 26,600 kWh  

Sustain.Life guidance
While these estimation techniques are valuable tools for approximating your company’s complete GHG emissions profile, don’t rely on them for long term use. Evaluate where the largest gaps in data completeness lie and develop a plan to address those gaps before completing your next inventory. Having complete, accurate data will best prepare you for  emissions reduction activities and set your ESG program up for long term success.  


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